Petrol Consumption Hits 63.7 Million Liters Per Day as Dangote Refinery Ramps Up Production
The Nigerian energy landscape has hit a significant milestone as domestic fuel consumption surged to an unprecedented 63.7 million liters per day in December 2025. This sharp increase, detailed in the latest factsheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), represents a 20.4% jump from the 52.9 million liters recorded in November. As the nation navigates the complexities of a post-subsidy era, these figures highlight the growing pressure on supply chains and the critical role of local refining.
Analyzing the Surge: Why Fuel Demand is Rising
The jump of 10.8 million liters per day in just one month is largely attributed to the festive period’s increased logistical needs and a stabilization in retail prices. According to NMDPRA, the total domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reached 74.2 million liters per day in December, ensuring that despite the high demand, national stock sufficiency improved from 16.65 days to 29.20 days.
Interestingly, this surge comes at a time when Nigerians are spending an estimated N1.7 trillion monthly on petrol. With average pump prices hovering around N878.50 per liter, the daily expenditure for the nation sits at approximately N55.9 billion. This data underscores a resilient demand for fuel despite the economic shifts seen throughout 2025.
The Dangote Refinery Factor: A 64% Growth in Supply
A key highlight of the NMDPRA report is the performance of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. In December 2025, the $20 billion facility increased its domestic petrol supply by 64.4%, jumping from 19.47 million liters per day in November to 32.01 million liters per day.
While the refinery reached a peak capacity utilization of 71%, it still fell short of its ambitious target of 50 million liters per day for the local market. Despite this shortfall, the refinery’s contribution has been instrumental in reducing the nation’s reliance on imports. In fact, petrol imports dropped by 19% in December, falling to 42.2 million liters per day as local production began to take a larger share of the market.
Market Distortions and Pricing Debates
The increase in consumption hasn’t occurred without controversy. Following Dangote Refinery’s price reduction to N699 per liter (with a retail price of N739 at MRS stations), experts have weighed in on the market impact. Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, a renowned petroleum economist, described the current pricing structure as a “market distortion,” questioning the long-term sustainability of competitive pricing in a fluctuating global market.
However, the Managing Director of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, maintains that the N739 per liter price remains competitive and beneficial for the Nigerian consumer. This pricing tug-of-war between local producers and imported products continues to shape the retail landscape across the country.
The Future of Nigeria’s Energy Security
Looking ahead to 2026, the NMDPRA report suggests a gradual shift toward energy self-sufficiency. With modular refineries like Waltersmith (Train 2) completing pre-commissioning and expected to introduce hydrocarbons in January 2026, the domestic supply of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) and other products is set to rise.
The goal for the federal government remains clear: stabilize the 50 million liters per day consumption benchmark and ensure that local refineries—including the state-owned Warri and Kaduna plants—eventually come online to eliminate the need for imports entirely.
Leave a Reply