In a development that offers a glimmer of hope for Nigerian households, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals a significant 12.59% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in the average retail price of petrol. According to the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) Price Watch for November 2025, the average cost per litre across the country fell to ₦1,061.35, down from the ₦1,214.17 recorded in November 2024. This downward trend suggests a gradual stabilization in the energy sector, even as the nation continues to navigate the complexities of full downstream deregulation.
Breaking Down the NBS November 2025 Data
While the year-on-year figures show a healthy decline, a closer look at the month-on-month (MoM) data reveals the persistent volatility of the Nigerian fuel market. Between October and November 2025, the average price actually increased by 0.86%, rising from ₦1,052.31. This slight monthly uptick highlights that while the long-term trajectory is improving, short-term logistics and exchange rate fluctuations still play a critical role in what consumers pay at the pump.
Regional Disparities: Who Paid the Most?
One of the most striking aspects of the NBS report is the wide gap in pricing across different states. Factors such as transportation costs, supply chain bottlenecks, and local demand continue to create a fragmented pricing landscape.
- States with the Highest Prices: Borno State topped the list with an average price of ₦1,133.86, followed by Sokoto at ₦1,118.83 and Kogi at ₦1,111.00.
- States with the Lowest Prices: On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oyo State recorded the cheapest average price at ₦997.39. Nasarawa (₦1,015.12) and Lagos (₦1,021.14) also remained among the most affordable locations.
On a zonal level, the North East emerged as the most expensive region for petrol, averaging ₦1,084.04, while the South West maintained its status as the cheapest zone with an average of ₦1,036.12.
What Is Driving the Price Drop?
Several factors have contributed to the annual decline in petrol prices. A major catalyst has been the increased domestic production from local refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which recently reduced its ex-gantry price to approximately ₦699 per litre. This move by a major local player has forced competition across the board, influencing other marketers to adjust their pump prices downward.
Additionally, the government’s decision to halt the implementation of the 15% ad-valorem duty on imported petroleum products has played a crucial role in preventing further price hikes. By removing these fiscal burdens, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has allowed for a more market-reflective pricing system that benefits the end-user.
Impact on Inflation and the Economy
The drop in fuel prices is a welcome relief for an economy that saw headline inflation ease to 14.45% in November 2025. Because petrol is a primary driver of transportation and operational costs for small businesses, lower pump prices help dampen the “cost-push” inflation that has plagued the country since 2023.
While challenges remain—particularly regarding the stability of the Naira and the efficiency of the national grid—the November 2025 NBS report indicates that the “Santa Claus rally” in the energy sector might finally be reaching the pockets of ordinary Nigerians.
Summary:
Nigeria’s petrol prices saw a notable 12.6% year-on-year drop in November 2025, averaging ₦1,061.35 per litre, as increased domestic refining capacity and regulatory adjustments begin to offer consumers relief from peak 2024 costs.
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